iPad shipments could reach 100 million in 2013

Apple (AAPL) sold 42.8 million iPad tablets into channels through the first three quarters of 2012 and the most recent estimates suggest the company could ship 26 million more iPads during the holiday quarter. If Apple does manage to hit that record, total iPad shipments on the year would reach 68.8 million units. As impressive as that would be, however, DisplaySearch analyst David Hsieh thinks 2013 iPad sales could climb as high as 100 million units as iPad mini demand explodes.

[More from BGR: Has the iPhone peaked? Apple’s iPhone 4S seen outselling iPhone 5]

In 2012, Hsieh estimates that 9.7-inch iPad panel shipments — that is, shipments of iPad displays from suppliers to Apple’s manufacturing partners —  will have totaled 70 million units, including 23 million iPad 2 displays and 47 million third- and fourth-generation iPad panels. He also believes Apple’s suppliers will ship 13.6 million iPad mini displays by the end of the year.

[More from BGR: Sony’s PlayStation 4 could lose to the next Xbox before it’s even released]

Next year, however, the analyst sees Apple hitting a major milestone.

“In 2013, it is likely that Apple will adjust its product portfolio to meet the strong demand for the iPad mini,” Hsieh wrote in a post on DisplaySearch’s blog. ”We believe that Apple is targeting total iPad shipments of 100 million in 2013, half accounted for by the iPad mini, and 40 million new iPad and 10 million iPad 2, as production continues at least until the middle of 2013.”

DisplaySearch estimates that more than 170 million tablets will ship in 2013 and Apple’s iPad will account for 60% of the market.

This article was originally published by BGR

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Keep thimerosal in vaccines: pediatricians

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) – A mercury-containing preservative should not be banned as an ingredient in vaccines, U.S. pediatricians said Monday, in a move that may be controversial.

In its statement, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) endorsed calls from a World Health Organization (WHO) committee that the preservative, thimerosal, not be considered a hazardous source of mercury that could be banned by the United Nations.

Back in 1999, a concern that kids receiving multiple shots containing thimerosal might get too much mercury – and develop autism or other neurodevelopmental problems as a result – led the AAP to call for its removal, despite the lack of hard evidence at the time.

“It was absolutely a matter of precaution because of the absence of more information,” said Dr. Louis Cooper, from Columbia University in New York, who was on the organization’s board of directors at the time.

“Subsequently an awful lot of effort has been put into trying to sort out whether thimerosal causes any harm to kids, and the bottom line is basically, it doesn’t look as if it does,” Cooper, who wrote a commentary published with the AAP’s statement, told Reuters Health.

In a 2004 safety review, for example, the independent U.S. Institute of Medicine concluded there was no evidence thimerosal-containing vaccines could cause autism. A study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention came to the same conclusion in 2010.

With the exception of some types of flu shots, the compound is not used in vaccines in the United States, which are distributed in single-dose vials.

And nobody is arguing that should change, according to Dr. Walter Orenstein, a member of the AAP Committee on Infectious Diseases and a researcher at the Emory Vaccine Center in Atlanta.

But in countries with fewer resources – where many children still die of vaccine-preventable diseases – it’s cheaper and easier to use multi-dose vials of vaccines against diphtheria and tetanus, for example.

Thimerosal prevents the rest of a multi-dose vial from getting contaminated with bacteria or fungi each time a dose is used.

Researchers estimated it could cost anywhere from two to five times as much to manufacture vaccines for developing countries without thimerosal, and both transporting vaccines and keeping them refrigerated would be much harder as well.

“If we had to take the thimerosal out of those multi-dose vials, we’re having a hard time completing the task of getting every kid immunized now, that would add a tremendous burden,” Cooper said – and more children would probably die as a result.

“Children who can now be protected from these life-threatening diseases could become vulnerable,” Orenstein told Reuters Health.

The new statement is published in the AAP’s journal Pediatrics.

Thimerosal contains a type of mercury called ethyl mercury. Toxic effects have been tied to its cousin, methyl mercury, which stays in the body for much longer.

Earlier this year, the WHO said replacing thimerosal with an alternative preservative could affect vaccine safety and might cause some vaccines to become unavailable.

Mercury, however, is still on the list of global health hazards to be banned in a draft treaty from the United Nations Environment Program – which would mean a ban on thimerosal.

Reducing mercury exposure “is a wonderful thing,” Orenstein said.

However, “We need this exception because thimerosal is so vital for protecting children.”

He said keeping thimerosal in vaccines is essential mostly for humanitarian reasons – although preventing childhood diseases in the developing world could also help the U.S. because other countries can serve as reservoirs for illness.

“For American parents, this is more looking at the world and our role and responsibility in protecting the children of the world than it is a direct impact,” Orenstein said.

SOURCE: http://bit.ly/cxXOG Pediatrics, online December 17, 2012.

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Analysis: Huge mandate for Japan’s LDP may be less than meets the eye

TOKYO (Reuters) – Even Japan‘s next prime minister, Shinzo Abe, realizes that his party’s landslide election victory is not the sweeping mandate that it appears at first blush.

An analysis of the vote as well as Abe’s own comments suggests he would be best served by focusing on what matters most to voters – the economy – and steering clear of divisive issues such as revising Japan’s pacifist constitution.

That said, aggressive moves by China in a territorial row over tiny islands in the East China Sea could act to bolster support for Abe’s tough-talking stance toward its giant rival.

Three years after a crushing defeat, Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) surged back to win 294 seats in Sunday’s vote for the 480-member lower house.

Together with a smaller ally, the New Komeito party, the LDP also took a two-thirds ‘super majority‘ that could help break Japan’s persistent policy deadlock in parliament.

The ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), in comparison, managed a mere 57 seats – less than a fifth of its showing when it swept into power for the first time in a historic 2009 vote.

Abe himself, however, admitted the victory was more a rejection of the novice Democrats’ messy reign than a vote of confidence for the LDP, which ruled Japan for most of the past half-century before its ouster three years ago.

“Our victory this time does not mean trust in the Liberal Democratic Party has been completely restored. Rather, it was a decision by the public that they should put an end to the political stagnation and confusion over the past three years, caused by the Democratic Party‘s misguided political leadership,” Abe told a news conference on Monday.

“We must move forward and achieve results.”

Japanese voters have been on a roller coaster of hopes and disappointment for the past decade since charismatic leader Junichiro Koizumi took office in 2001 pledging bold reforms.

Lured by Koizumi’s promises, voters handed the LDP a massive victory in 2005 only to kick out the long-ruling party four years later in hopes that the Democrats would do a better job.

In a sign that both enthusiasm and expectations are fading, turnout on Sunday was a record low 59 percent, according to a Kyodo news agency estimate.

Nor did the LDP win a majority of votes from those who did cast their ballots. The main opposition party won about 43 percent of the vote in the single-seat constituencies that supply 300 of the chamber’s seats, but a first-past-the post system and split votes amongst a clutch of new, small parties meant that the party secured 79 percent of those seats.

JULY ELECTION HURDLE

In the proportional representation blocks that provide the other 180 seats, the LDP won about 28 percent of the votes compared to 16 percent for the DPJ, while the new right-leaning Japan Restoration Party took 20 percent, media estimates showed.

“It’s clear that only 30 percent or less of voters solidly support the LDP. Unless Abe is careful, his cabinet support will go down to that level very quickly and even with a two-thirds majority, he would be in trouble,” said Sophia University political science professor Koichi Nakano.

Abe, who quit in 2007 after a troubled year in office, will have to persuade voters quickly that they made the right choice ahead of an election for parliament’s upper chamber in July.

Although the LDP-New Komeito “super majority” will allow the lower house to enact bills rejected by the upper chamber, doing so is a time-consuming and cumbersome process, so the new government will be keen to win a majority in July’s poll.

“He’s preparing for the next election and understands that what he does in the first few months will have a big impact and voters are most interested in the economy,” said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University’s Japan campus.

Abe has vowed to rescue Japan from its fourth recession since 2000, end deflation and tame the strong yen with a recipe of hyper-easy monetary policy and big spending on public works.

Equally central to his agenda, however, is a push to shed the shackles of Japan’s post-war pacifism by revising the U.S.-drafted constitution and rewriting wartime history with a less apologetic tinge.

Changing the charter – never altered since its adoption in 1947 – requires approval by two-thirds of both houses of parliament and a majority of voters in a national referendum.

Straw polls of voters suggest that the economy tops the list of public priorities and LDP ally New Komeito is not keen on revising the constitution’s pacifist Article 9.

But a strong showing by the nationalist Japan Restoration Party in the election also indicates simmering support for a tough stance towards China as well as hope for a decisive leader to restore Japan’s flagging self-respect.

That could grow if Beijing steps up its activities in waters and airspace near the disputed islands, known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China.

Last week, a Chinese government plane entered what Japan considers its airspace over the islets in the East China Sea, prompting Japanese fighters to scramble and escalating tension in the row between Asia’s two biggest economies.

“This has not been a strong mandate for Abe in foreign policy or security matters,” said Narushige Michishita, an associate professor at the National Institute for Policy Studies. “But if China continues to provoke us as they did several days ago, that might change.”

(Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

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Egyptians hand Islamists narrow win in constitution vote

CAIRO (Reuters) – Egyptians voted in favor of a constitution shaped by Islamists but opposed by other groups who fear it will divide the Arab world’s biggest nation, officials in rival camps said on Sunday after the first round of a two-stage referendum.

Next week’s second round is likely to give another “yes” vote as it includes districts seen as more sympathetic towards Islamists, analysts say, meaning the constitution would be approved.

But the narrow win so far gives Islamist President Mohamed Mursi only limited grounds for celebration by showing the wide rifts in a country where he needs to build a consensus for tough economic reforms.

The Muslim Brotherhood‘s party, which propelled Mursi to office in a June election, said 56.5 percent backed the text. Official results are not expected until after the next round.

While an opposition official conceded the “yes” camp appeared to have won the first round, the opposition National Salvation Front said in a statement that voting abuses meant a rerun was needed – although it did not explicitly challenge the Brotherhood‘s vote tally.

Rights groups reported abuses such as polling stations opening late, officials telling people how to vote and bribery. They also criticized widespread religious campaigning which portrayed “no” voters as heretics.

A joint statement by seven human rights groups urged the referendum’s organizers “to avoid these mistakes in the second stage of the referendum and to restage the first phase again”.

Mursi and his backers say the constitution is vital to move Egypt’s democratic transition forward. Opponents say the basic law is too Islamist and tramples on minority rights, including those of Christians who make up 10 percent of the population.

The build-up to Saturday’s vote was marred by deadly protests. Demonstrations erupted when Mursi awarded himself extra powers on November 22 and then fast-tracked the constitution through an assembly dominated by his Islamist allies.

However, the vote passed off calmly with long queues in Cairo and several other places, though unofficial tallies indicated turnout was around a third of the 26 million people eligible to vote this time. The vote was staggered because many judges needed to oversee polling staged a boycott in protest.

The opposition had said the vote should not have been held given the violent protests. Foreign governments are watching closely how the Islamists, long viewed warily in the West, handle themselves in power.

“It’s wrong to have a vote or referendum with the country in the state it is – blood and killings, and no security,” said Emad Sobhy, a voter who lives in Cairo. “Holding a referendum with the country as it is cannot give you a proper result.”

INCREASINGLY DIVIDED

As polls closed, Islamists attacked the offices of the newspaper of the liberal Wafd party, part of the opposition National Salvation Front coalition that pushed for a “no” vote.

“The referendum was 56.5 percent for the ‘yes’ vote,” a senior official in the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party operations room set up to monitor voting told Reuters.

The Brotherhood and its party had representatives at polling stations across the 10 areas, including Cairo, in this round. The official, who asked not to be identified, said the tally was based on counts from more than 99 percent of polling stations.

“The nation is increasingly divided and the pillars of state are swaying,” opposition politician Mohamed ElBaradei wrote on Twitter. “Poverty and illiteracy are fertile grounds for trading with religion. The level of awareness is rising fast.”

One opposition official also told Reuters the vote appeared to have gone in favor of Islamists who backed the constitution.

The opposition initially said its exit polls indicated the “no” camp would win comfortably, but officials changed tack during the night. One opposition official said in the early hours of Sunday that it would be “very close”.

A narrow loss could still hearten leftists, socialists, Christians and more liberal-minded Muslims who make up the disparate opposition, which has been beaten in two elections since Hosni Mubarak was overthrown last year.

They were drawn together to oppose what they saw as a power grab by Mursi as he pushed through the constitution. The National Salvation Front includes prominent figures such as ElBaradei, former Arab League chief Amr Moussa and firebrand leftist Hamdeen Sabahy.

If the constitution is approved, a parliamentary election will follow early next year.

DEADLY VIOLENCE

Analysts question whether the opposition group will keep together until the parliamentary election. The Islamist-dominated lower house of parliament elected earlier this year was dissolved based on a court order in June.

Violence in Cairo and other cities has plagued the run-up to the referendum. At least eight people were killed when rival camps clashed during demonstrations outside the presidential palace earlier this month.

In order to pass, the constitution must be approved by more than 50 percent of those casting ballots. There are 51 million eligible voters in the nation of 83 million.

Islamists have been counting on their disciplined ranks of supporters and on Egyptians desperate for an end to turmoil that has hammered the economy and sent Egypt’s pound to eight-year lows against the dollar.

The army deployed about 120,000 troops and 6,000 tanks and armored vehicles to protect polling stations and other government buildings. While the military backed Mubarak and his predecessors, it has not intervened in the present crisis.

(Additional reporting Yasmin Saleh and Marwa Awad; Writing by Edmund Blair and Giles Elgood; Editing by Tom Pfeiffer)

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U.S. gun website sued for alleged ties to slayings

CHICAGO (Reuters) – A prominent U.S. gun control group on Wednesday sued a gun auction website it says is linked to a mass shooting at a Wisconsin spa in October and the stalker slaying of a woman near Chicago in 2011.

The Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence alleges that the design of armslist.com facilitates illegal online sales to unlawful gun buyers with no background checks, and enables users to evade laws that permit private sellers to sell guns only to residents of their own state.

“We as a nation are better than an anonymous Internet gun market where killers and criminals can easily get guns,” said Jonathan Lowy, the Brady Center’s Legal Action Project Director, in a statement.

The wrongful death lawsuit was filed in Cook County Circuit Court on behalf of the family of Jitka Vesel, 36, an immigrant from the Czech Republic who was shot and killed last year by Demetry Smirnov, a stalker.

The suit, which the Brady Center says is the first of its kind, alleges that Smirnov illegally bought the gun from a private seller he located through armslist.com.

Vesel was killed in the parking lot of the Chicago-area Czechoslovak Heritage Museum, where she was a volunteer preparing for a celebration in memory of Czech-American Chicago Mayor Anton Cermak.

Cermak was slain with a handgun during an attempted assassination of President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933.

A representative for website owner Armslist, LLC was not immediately available for comment. The company is based in Noble, Oklahoma, according to public records.

The website includes a “terms of use” page on which users must promise they are age 18 or older and will not use the site for illegal purposes.

The Brady Center said that the case does not infringe on the Second Amendment right to bear arms, noting that 74 percent of National Rifle Association members believe that no guns should be sold without a criminal background check.

A representative for the NRA was not immediately available for comment.

Radcliffe Haughton, who killed his estranged wife and two other women and wounded four others before killing himself in a shooting in a Milwaukee suburb on October 21, also got his weapon through armslist.com, according to Wisconsin officials.

Haughton, who was under a restraining order for domestic violence, avoided a background check through a “lethal loophole” by buying a gun through the website, according to a letter to Armslist sent by Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and Wisconsin U.S. Representative Gwen Moore on October 26.

Sales conducted over the Internet also have been linked to mass killings at Virginia Tech and Northern Illinois University. In 1999 eBay announced it was prohibiting online gun sales, according to the Brady Center lawsuit.

Craigslist did the same in 2007. Amazon.com and Google AdWords also prohibits the listing of firearms for sale, the suit says.

An undercover investigation of online gun sales by New York City last year found that 62 percent of private gun sellers agreed to sell a firearm to a buyer who said he probably could not pass a background check.

(Reporting By Mary Wisniewski; Editing by Greg McCune and Xavier Briand)

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Experts: No link between Asperger’s, violence

NEW YORK (AP) — While an official has said that the 20-year-old gunman in the Connecticut school shooting had Asperger’s syndrome, experts say there is no connection between the disorder and violence.

Asperger‘s is a mild form of autism often characterized by social awkwardness.

“There really is no clear association between Asperger’s and violent behavior,” said psychologist Elizabeth Laugeson, an assistant clinical professor at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Little is known about Adam Lanza, identified by police as the shooter in the Friday massacre at a Newtown, Conn., elementary school. He fatally shot his mother before going to the school and killing 20 young children, six adults and himself, authorities said.

A law enforcement official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the person was not authorized to discuss the unfolding investigation, said Lanza had been diagnosed with Asperger’s.

High school classmates and others have described him as bright but painfully shy, anxious and a loner. Those kinds of symptoms are consistent with Asperger’s, said psychologist Eric Butter of Nationwide Children’s Hospital in Columbus, Ohio, who treats autism, including Asperger’s, but has no knowledge of Lanza’s case.

Research suggests people with autism do have a higher rate of aggressive behavior — outbursts, shoving or pushing or angry shouting — than the general population, he said.

“But we are not talking about the kind of planned and intentional type of violence we have seen at Newtown,” he said in an email.

“These types of tragedies have occurred at the hands of individuals with many different types of personalities and psychological profiles,” he added.

Autism is a developmental disorder that can range from mild to severe. Asperger’s generally is thought of as a mild form. Both autism and Asperger’s can be characterized by poor social skills, repetitive behavior or interests and problems communicating. Unlike classic autism, Asperger’s does not typically involve delays in mental development or speech.

Experts say those with autism and related disorders are sometimes diagnosed with other mental health problems, such as depression, anxiety, bipolar disorder or obsessive-compulsive disorder.

“I think it’s far more likely that what happened may have more to do with some other kind of mental health condition like depression or anxiety rather than Asperger’s,” Laugeson said.

She said those with Asperger’s tend to focus on rules and be very law-abiding.

“There’s something more to this,” she said. “We just don’t know what that is yet.”

After much debate, the term Asperger’s is being dropped from the diagnostic manual used by the nation’s psychiatrists. In changes approved earlier this month, Asperger’s will be incorporated under the umbrella term “autism spectrum disorder” for all the ranges of autism.

__

AP Writer Matt Apuzzo contributed to this report.

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Online:

Asperger’s information: http://1.usa.gov/3tGSp5

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India’s Prime Minister says to speed up sale of stakes in state firms

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India will speed up the sale of stakes in state companies to revive the stock market and will push ahead with reforms aimed at spurring an investment recovery in the flagging economy, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Saturday.

Selling equity in large public industries is a central plank of the government‘s plan to bring down a wide fiscal deficit, a major weakness in Asia’s third largest economy.

This week, the sale of 10 percent in state miner NMDC raised $ 1.1 billion and the government is aiming for 300 billion rupees from such partial privatizations by March.

“We will speed up the disinvestment process, which will also revive our equity markets,” Singh told a gathering of industry representatives in New Delhi.

However, he did not give details of a new timetable for the sales, which is due to include energy exploration major Oil India.

Singh’s government has recently taken measures to allow in foreign supermarkets and tackle budget-busting fuel subsidies.

“The steps we have taken are only the beginning of a process to revive economy and take it back to its growth rate of 8 to 9 percent,” Singh said.

Economic growth slowed to 5.4 percent in the first half of this fiscal year and is on track to grow at its slowest rate in a decade.

Slowing exports and foreign investment have widened the current account deficit.

Global ratings agencies have repeatedly warned India that it faces a credit downgrade if it does not tackle a high debt burden and the fiscal deficit, which is the largest among major emerging economies.

Last year, the deficit was 5.8 percent of gross domestic product, which Singh said was “clearly unsustainable”. He reiterated the official target of reducing it to 5.3 percent this year.

“The government is serious about moving in this direction,” Singh said.

Raghuram Rajan, the government’s chief economic adviser, said that reining in the deficit was essential to attract more investment.

“Clearly a fiscal path that is credible is the next important step so that we retake the confidence of our investors,” Rajan said, at the same event. He said he hoped increased buoyancy in the stock market would prompt businesses to start investing more.

“Business is sitting on a lot of cash, if they start investing some of that, the momentum starts picking up.”

Recent reforms have helped Mumbai’s benchmark Sensex index rally strongly and it is expected to end 2012 up by about 25 percent, despite the slow economy, stubbornly high inflation, and a record current account deficit.

(Reporting by Manoj Kumar and Arup Roychoudhury; Writing by Frank Jack Daniel)

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One Direction, Rihanna, Adele lead Billboard 2012 charts

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – Newcomer British boy band One Direction joined R&B diva Rihanna and British singer Adele to top Billboard‘s year-end music charts, released on Friday.

One Direction, who topped the Billboard 200 album chart twice this year with their debut, “Up All Night” in March and their sophomore album “Take Me Home” in November, were named Billboard‘s top new artist/group, rounding off a stellar year of U.S. success for the band.

Adele, 24, who became the first woman top score No. 1 single, album and artist on Billboard’s 2011 year-end charts, continued her reign in 2012, when her Grammy-winning record “21″ was the top-selling album in the U.S. and she was once again named artist of the year.

“21″ has sold more than 10 million copies in the U.S. since its release in February 2011, becoming a fixture on the Billboard 200, especially after Adele’s six wins at the Grammy Awards earlier this year.

She is the only act to be named both top artist and have the top album in Billboard’s charts for two years in a row.

Adele was also named the No. 1 female artist while R&B rapper-singer Drake was named No. 1 male artist and pop-rock band Maroon 5 were named No. 1 group.

Rihanna, also 24, was named the top Hot 100 artist after a year of chart-topping hit singles such as “We Found Love” and “Diamonds” on the Hot 100 chart, which measures top-selling singles each week.

But Australia’s Gotye picked up the Hot 100 single of the year, with his heartbreak hit “Somebody That I Used To Know.”

Billboard compile their end-of-year lists based on chart performances between December 3 2011 and November 24 2012, tallying data including album sales and streaming figures.

For more on Billboard’s year-end charts, visit http://www.billboard.com/news/the-best-of-2012-the-year-in-music-1008045682.story#

(Reporting By Piya Sinha-Roy, editing by Jill Serjeant and Andrew Hay)

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Venezuela furious at Obama’s comments on ailing Chavez

CARACAS (Reuters) – Venezuela‘s government reacted with fury on Friday to U.S. President Barack Obama‘s criticism of ailing Hugo Chavez‘s “authoritarian” government at a time of national anxiety over his battle to recover from cancer surgery.

In an interview with U.S. network Univision, Obama declined to speculate on the 58-year-old socialist president’s health in Cuba, where he is in a delicate state after his fourth operation since mid-2011 for cancer in his pelvic region.

But he did say U.S. policy was aimed at ensuring “freedom” in Venezuela. “The most important thing is to remember that the future of Venezuela should be in the hands of the Venezuelan people. We’ve seen from Chavez in the past authoritarian policies, suppression of dissent,” Obama said.

Those remarks went down badly with officials in Caracas where emotions are running high over the future of Chavez and his self-styled revolution in the South American OPEC nation.

In power since 1999, Chavez is due to start a new six-year term on January 10 after winning re-election just weeks before Obama did. His health crisis has thrown that into doubt, and Chavez has named a successor in case he is incapacitated.

“With these despicable comments at such a delicate moment for Venezuela, the U.S. president is responsible for a major deterioration in bilateral relations, proving the continuity of his policy of aggression and disrespect towards our country,” the Venezuelan government said in a statement.

‘SLOW’ RECOVERY, BUT SPEAKING

During his tumultuous rule, Chavez has gleefully assumed former Cuban leader Fidel Castro’s mantle as Washington’s main irritant in the region – though oil has continued to flow freely north to the benefit of both nations’ economies.

Adored by poor supporters for his charismatic style and channeling of oil revenue into a wide array of welfare projects, Chavez is regarded as a dictator by opponents who point to his often harsh treatment of political foes.

Officials said doctors had to use “corrective measures” on Chavez to stop unexpected bleeding caused during Tuesday’s six-hour operation, but that his condition had since improved.

“The patient is fulfilling his post-operation protocol satisfactorily, given the complexity of the surgery,” the latest Venezuelan government statement on his condition said. “Recovery has been slow but progressive,” it added, saying Chavez had communicated with relatives and sent greetings to Venezuelans.

Amid rumors Chavez had been unconscious since his operation, presidential press officer Teresa Maniglia indicated he had spoken for the first time on Friday. “‘How are my people?’ was the first thing Chavez said today when he spoke with his family for the first time,” she said via Twitter.

Chavez’s situation is being closely tracked around the region, especially among fellow leftist-run nations from Cuba to Bolivia which depend on his generous oil subsidies and other aid for their fragile economies.

“The president is battling hard – this time for his life, before it was for the Latin American fatherland,” said President Evo Morales of Bolivia, a Chavez friend and ally who announced he was flying to Havana overnight for an “emergency” visit.

“This is very painful for us.”

SPECULATION

Venezuela’s leader has not divulged details of the cancer that was first diagnosed in June 2011, sparking endless speculation among the country’s 29 million people and criticism from opposition leaders for lack of transparency.

“They’re hiding something, I think,” said 57-year-old housewife Alicia Marquina. “I’m not convinced by the announcements they’re making. I’m not a ‘chavista’, but neither am I cruel. I hope he does not suffer much and finds peace.”

If Chavez has to leave office, new elections must be held within 30 days. Chavez has named his vice president, Nicolas Maduro, a 50-year-old former bus driver and union leader, as his heir apparent.

Opposition flagbearer Henrique Capriles, who lost the presidential race against Chavez in October, is the favorite to face Maduro should a new vote be held, though first the governor of Miranda state must retain his post in local elections on Sunday.

“The regime change is already occurring,” Jefferies’ & Co. managing director Siobhan Morden said in one of numerous Wall Street analyses of events in Venezuela. “The question is whether the alternative is Chavista-light or the opposition.”

Even if he dies, Chavez is likely to cast a long shadow over Venezuela’s political landscape for years – not unlike Argentine leader Juan Peron, whose 1950s populism is still the ideological foundation of the country’s dominant political party.

There are parallels with the situation in Cuba too, where Chavez’s close friend and mentor, Fidel Castro, suffered a health downturn, underwent various operations in secret, then eventually handed over power to his brother Raul Castro.

(Additional reporting by Mario Naranjo and Eyanir Chinea in Caracas, Carlos Quiroga in La Paz; Editing by Paul Simao)

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